AGP Executive Report

Ol Kalou By-Election: Kenya’s mini-poll is turning into a national flashpoint as provisional tallies show DCP’s Sammy Douglas Waweru Kamau surging ahead, while IEBC urges the public to wait for the official declaration; the vote has also been marred by reports of masked men, tear gas, and alleged bribery and violence, with the Media Council of Kenya condemning attacks on journalists and demanding action. Political Realignments: Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has been removed as Senate Deputy Minority Whip, replaced by Migori’s Eddy Oketch, amid ODM leadership reshuffles and claims of State House influence; meanwhile, Mt Kenya politics is reigniting with Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku’s comments on a perceived East-West split. Public Safety & Justice: A Grade One pupil was killed and another injured in Limuru after a contractor’s grader lost control, renewing calls for safer road crossings; separately, a missing pistol linked to a Court of Appeal judge has raised fresh questions on firearm monitoring. Health & Development: JOOTRH in Kisumu is set to begin open-heart surgeries after acquiring a heart-lung machine, while a Kenyan hospital chief says stronger healthcare systems can curb medical tourism. Weather: KMD forecasts mostly dry conditions over the next 24 hours, with scattered showers in parts of Nairobi and several counties.

Rastafari Court Ruling: Kenya’s High Court has dismissed a Rastafarian bid to legalise cannabis for religious use, saying the community failed to prove cannabis is necessary to its practice and that exemptions need a stronger legal basis. Coastal Environment Fight: Greenpeace renewed calls to halt Dangote’s $17bn Lamu refinery, warning of mangrove and marine damage, oil-spill risk and air pollution unless a full independent environmental and social impact assessment is done. Ol Kalou By-election Chaos: The parliamentary by-election in Ol Kalou was marred by violence, tear gas and attacks on journalists, with residents also blocking police from entering a polling compound. Election Observer Arrest: Rights group Defenders Coalition condemned the arrest of election observer Allans Ademba during the same by-election, alleging targeting of independent observers. Senate Leadership Shake-up: ODM removed Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as Senate Deputy Minority Whip, replacing him with Migori’s Eddy Oketch. Sugar Sector Tension: Sugarcane farmers threatened nationwide protests over delayed elections for Kenya Sugar Board directors, accusing a legal stalemate involving government, cartels and millers. Digital Trade Push: The EAC says online shopping across East Africa could become safer as it wraps up a knowledge mission to improve cross-border e-commerce rules and consumer protection.

Ol Kalou By-Election: Security is tight in Ol Kalou ahead of the parliamentary by-election, with reports flagging violence, bribery, rigging fears and IEBC bias concerns as voters head to the polls. Governance & Courts: The High Court battle over the JSC plan to publish individual judges’ performance is set to test judicial accountability versus fears of harassment. Public Finance Scandal: A payroll fraud probe has linked 14 state agencies and counties to a Sh6.4 billion theft, deepening pressure on oversight bodies. Energy & Cost of Living: CBK says forex reserves are set to rise to a seven-month high, helped by Safaricom stake sale proceeds and World Bank funding, while traders report losses amid power standoffs. Health Partnership: Kenya and the US signed a five-year health cooperation framework worth about $1.6bn to back UHC, malaria, HIV and TB, plus digital health. Rastafari Cannabis Ruling: Kenya’s court rejected a bid to legalise marijuana for religious use, keeping possession criminal under current law. Digital Economy: CBK has licensed 25 more digital lenders, bringing the total to 252, as Kenya’s credit market keeps expanding.

Anti-Corruption Push: EACC and the ODPP pledge joint capacity-building to speed up investigations and prosecutions of corruption and money laundering. Rule of Law Debate: Senior advocate Macharia Njeru says “it starts from the top,” blaming President Ruto’s leadership style for a culture of lawlessness and weakening independent oversight bodies. Election Violence Warnings: Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka warns politicians against political goonism, urging CS Murkomen to act as 2027 election fears grow. 2027 Politics, Online Voting: Wantam Movement launches an online vote to pick its preferred 2027 presidential flagbearer, with voting set for July 25-26. Court on Cannabis: Kenya’s High Court rejects Rastafarians’ bid to legalise cannabis for religious use, though it calls for a wider national debate. Identity Services: DCI says good conduct certificates could be issued within 24 hours after rolling out a new biometric system. Public Safety & Crime: Police probe a Nairobi road rage case after a Prado allegedly repeatedly rammed a taxi; separately, a robbery suspect linked to a missing judge’s gun is gunned down. Gender Justice: Chief Justice Koome vows to expand Gender Justice Courts to improve access to justice for GBV and femicide survivors. Fuel Pressure Abroad: South Sudan residents complain of rising fuel prices and a weakening pound, squeezing households and commuters.

Fuel Relief Watch: EPRA says petrol, diesel and kerosene prices will stay unchanged for 30 days (July 15–Aug 14) and points to KSh 945m from the Petroleum Development Levy Fund plus an extended 8% VAT cut, as Kenyans question why pump prices haven’t fallen. Ol Kalou Poll Tensions: IEBC and security agencies ramp up for the Ol Kalou by-election with warnings over bribery and “super agents,” while observers and residents raise concerns about violence and intimidation ahead of voting. Digital Finance Growth: CBK has licensed 25 more digital lenders, bringing the total to 252, as Kenya’s digital lending market continues expanding. AI in Schools Push: Stakeholders call for introducing an AI subject in Kenya’s education curriculum to prepare learners for the next economy. Conservation Spotlight: Raabia Hawa is celebrated for her work in wildlife and marine conservation, highlighting the fight against poaching and ocean “pirates.” Sports: Gor Mahia announce squad changes ahead of their CAF Champions League return.

Oil & Environment: Greenpeace Africa wants Kenya to halt Dangote’s planned 700,000-barrel-per-day Lamu mega refinery, warning of mangrove and marine damage, oil spills and air pollution, and says approvals should wait for an independent environmental and social impact assessment. Public Health: WHO says Congo’s Ebola outbreak is outpacing response, with 80% of new cases outside known contact lists; meanwhile, a US humanitarian worker has tested positive and is in isolation in Bunia. Elections & Governance: IEBC warns that only accredited agents will be allowed inside polling stations for the Ol Kalou by-election, targeting “super agents” and political interference. Fuel Costs: Kenya extends an 8% VAT cut on petrol and diesel for three more months to mid-October, with a Sh945m subsidy planned for the July-August cycle. Road Safety & Transport: NTSA gives motorists six months to collect printed logbooks or face disposal as e-logbooks roll out. Politics & Peace: UDA women MPs urge youth to reject manipulation into violence and goonism ahead of 2027. Weather Risk: The IRC warns El Niño could bring floods, disease and drought to vulnerable communities across East Africa and beyond.

El Niño Watch: The International Rescue Committee warns El Niño is intensifying and could trigger severe flooding, disease and drought across East Africa and Asia, with Kenya among the most exposed as conditions shift from dry spells to high flood and landslide risk. Hunger Alert: FEWS NET says nearly 4 million Kenyans will need humanitarian food support from June to January, peaking in the September-October lean season, especially in pastoral counties like Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit and Turkana. Polio Surveillance: In northern Kenya, community health volunteers are tracking vaccine-derived polio in remote, mobile communities where low immunisation can let the weakened virus circulate and mutate. Judicial Scrutiny: Questions are rising over whether senior state officials respect court orders, as the Judiciary faces renewed scrutiny on compliance. Cost of Living: The World Bank warns job shortages and higher fuel prices could push up to 2.4 million more Kenyans below the poverty line in 2026, leaving many unable to afford basic daily needs. Trade & Industry: Kenya and Türkiye soda ash imports face five-year anti-dumping duties in Pakistan, after NTC found dumped imports harmed local producers. Media & Tech: StarTimes Kenya says it is exploring AI tools to improve production and distribution while keeping local creative professionals at the centre. Politics & Violence: A report highlights the growing use of “goons” in Kenyan politics, pointing to poverty and election pressure driving political violence.

Political Violence & Rights: A man, Kevin Odoso, says he was attacked by unknown people hours after criticizing ODM leader Oburu Odinga online, as rights groups warn Kenya’s “goon” culture is worsening ahead of 2027. Security Operations: Kenyan forces killed 11 suspected al-Shabaab militants in Mandera in an intelligence-led border raid. Health & Regional Risk: South Sudan steps up Ebola preparedness as the DRC outbreak surges, with WHO warning of high importation risk through cross-border movement. Elections & Courts: The High Court suspended IEBC’s Sh1.5m fine against Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, pending a hearing. Business & Connectivity: EBRD approved up to €270m for telecom firm Yas to expand fibre and 4G/5G in Senegal and Kenya; Starlink also paused new residential sign-ups in seven Kenyan counties due to capacity. Energy & Industry: Dangote confirmed Lamu as the site for a mega refinery, promising major regional jobs and output. Sports: Harambee Starlets were drawn into a tough Group A at WAFCON 2026 with Morocco, Senegal and Algeria. Crime & Safety: Families and politicians raised alarm over continued killings on Del Monte’s pineapple farm after G4S took over security.

Junior Starlets’ World Cup push: President William Ruto and leaders including Mike Sonko celebrated Kenya’s Junior Starlets after they beat South Africa 3-1 in the second leg to qualify for the 2026 FIFA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco, with Sonko donating KSh1 million to spur preparations. Ol Kalou by-election tensions: Political violence flared ahead of the July 16 poll, with reports of a driver shot during a Linda Mwananchi rally in Nyahururu and clashes in Kisumu; Amnesty International urged IEBC to postpone if credibility can’t be guaranteed. Church vs politics: Internal Security PS Raymond Omollo warned religious leaders to keep churches as sanctuaries of peace, not platforms for hatred and tribalism. Infrastructure financing: President Ruto said the National Infrastructure Fund has mobilised Sh350bn to unlock stalled dams, roads and airports, including renewed Thwake Dam works. Health and policy: Africa CDC called for stronger domestic financing to improve maternal health, while concerns persist over high medicine prices in Kenya. Regional migration watch: South Africa reported processing over 53,000 foreign nationals for deportation or repatriation amid tightened migration enforcement.

Public Safety & Crime: CCTV captured armed thugs robbing victims at gunpoint in Ruaka, escalating fears of insecurity across parts of Kenya. Migration Crackdown: Kenya says it has processed 53,449 foreign nationals for deportation or voluntary repatriation since mid-June, with the government now considering scaling back as numbers fall. Health Security: MSF is training health workers in Nairobi for deployment to Ebola-hit DR Congo, using simulation gear and mock labs to prepare for complex outbreaks. Infrastructure & Land: Deputy President Kindiki says compensation talks are ongoing for residents affected by the Sh7bn Nithi Bridge project, while the National Land Commission has published over 100 landowners’ names for hearings. Energy Costs: EPRA announced July 2026 electricity charges, warning power bills may rise by more than Sh5 per unit. Politics & Unity: Ruto urged Kenyans to reject tribal politics and said no region will be left behind; PS Omollo also warned churches against becoming platforms for divisive politics. Sports: Emmanuel Wanyonyi broke the 1,000m world record in Monaco, while Joshua Cheptegei won the Absa Run Your City Durban 10K.

Ol Kalou By-Election Turmoil: Gunmen attacked a DCP campaign vehicle along the Gilgil–Ol Kalou road, with fresh claims of intimidation and voter bribery as the July 16 poll nears. Political Courtroom Drama: National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah threatens to sue Rigathi Gachagua over Ol Kalou poll claims, escalating a bitter blame game. 2027 Campaign Pressure: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki urged leaders to focus on securing Ruto’s 2027 re-election and avoid early 2032 campaigns, while Mudavadi stressed peace, security and a stronger public service. Conservation With Real Impact: Deputy President Kindiki praised the Kaptagat Integrated Conservation Programme as it marks a decade of restoring the forest and improving livelihoods. Wildlife Under Drought: A desalination plant in Ithumba is drawing 150+ wild elephants to drink in northern Tsavo, easing human-wildlife conflict. Health Watch: Kenya’s Ebola preparedness debate is back in focus after a US humanitarian worker tested positive in Congo, renewing questions on the Nanyuki quarantine plan. Weather: Kenya Met forecasts cool, cloudy conditions in Nairobi and central counties, with showers and thunderstorms expected in parts of western regions.

Road Safety Tragedy: Three people died after a speeding car crashed into a pedestrian footbridge along Nairobi’s Raila Odinga Way/Mbagathi area and burst into flames; police say the driver may have lost control and social media reports point to intoxication. Ebola Update: A U.S. humanitarian worker in Congo tested positive for Ebola (Bundibugyo strain) as cases in the outbreak rose to about 1,830 with spread into a fourth province. Local Justice & Crime: DCI says an Afghan national wanted by the U.S. over narcotics and firearms was extradited after court approval, while Kenya Railways warns of fake SGR ticket platforms and urges victims to report scams. Governance & Economy: Treasury CS John Mbadi defends National Infrastructure Fund board appointments as merit-based and hints at possible infrastructure bonds; Kenya Railways also reassures the Nairobi–Ol Kalou–Nyahururu train will keep running. Business & Health: A Sapienza University review flags pesticide residues in infant formula across multiple countries, including Kenya. Diplomacy: France strengthens defence and economic ties with Kenya through a bilateral framework. Sports & Community: Kaptagat Forest Marathon returns with a new 42km race, linking conservation and training.

World Economy & Jobs: The World Bank cut Kenya’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.9%, citing higher energy costs, uncertainty and weaker private investment. Regional Energy: Kenya Power signed a power purchase deal with Ethiopia’s utility at 15.5 US cents per kWh, pushing a “Connected East Africa” grid. Digital Learning: Airtel Africa will connect 5,000 schools to free internet by 2027 with UNICEF support, building on thousands already linked. Sports: Emmanuel Wanyonyi shattered the 1,000m world record in Monaco (2:11.83), while Kenyan Olympians urged clean running at Eldoret City Marathon awards. Health: A breast cancer initiative in rural Kenya is speeding diagnosis through subsidised biopsies and lab support, targeting long delays. Governance & Elections: Rigathi Gachagua demanded IEBC resignations over alleged double standards ahead of the Ol Kalou by-election. Local Healthcare: Turkana North residents protested a dilapidated dispensary, saying it’s crippling access to care.

Courts & Justice: The Court of Appeal has declined to lift the arrest warrant for Bomet Governor Hillary Barchok and ten officers, after their failure to comply with orders tied to reinstating 595 workers. Rule of Law: Lawyers held a nationwide Purple Ribbon March demanding faster, independent investigations into the deaths of advocates Edward Kariuki Muthee and Esther Wairimu Keige. Politics & Elections: Rigathi Gachagua accused IEBC of failing to rein in state officials accused of bribery in the Ol Kalou by-election, while also alleging plans to postpone the poll. Crime & Accountability: A former senior military officer linked to the Laikipia Airbase killings of his wife and two children has been found guilty on three murder counts. Economy: Kenya’s economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, with tourism and transport leading gains. Youth & Jobs: President Ruto directed agencies to create a NYOTA Growth Product for bigger financing after the initial grants, as the programme expands to over 122,000 beneficiaries. Infrastructure: KeNHA issued a 30-day demolition notice for illegal occupants along the Ruiru–Githunguri–Uplands road reserve ahead of a planned upgrade. Security: DCI seized 825kg of cannabis worth about Ksh24.7 million in Voi and arrested two suspects. Public Health & Safety: Kisumu opened the Baby Pendo Botanical Park in honour of the child killed during 2017 post-election protests.

Ol Kalou By-Election: IEBC warns the race could be postponed or cancelled amid reports of violence, bribery and campaign breaches, as government spending and “cash and projects” dominate the contest. Electoral Reforms: IEBC also proposes changes to strengthen pre-election dispute handling ahead of 2027, including extending nomination dispute timelines. Energy & Clean Cooking: President Ruto pushes universal clean cooking, seeking about Sh133 billion to cut reliance on firewood and charcoal. Power Reliability: City Hall turns to generators after Sakaja fails to pay Kenya Power, while Kenya Power explains transformer moves in Mbeere North. Education & Exams: KNEC opens registration for November 2026 business and technical exams, and warns institutions to meet all requirements online. Justice & Investigations: DCI says homicide is not ruled out in the death of KFS legal manager Esther Keige; autopsy was inconclusive pending toxicology. Green Industry: China’s TAILG and UNDP sign an MoU to set up a Green Mobility Centre of Excellence in Kenya, including EV assembly lab and training. Public Health: Africa CDC reports Ebola deaths have topped 600 in DRC and Uganda, urging sustained support. Wildlife & Farmers: KWS begins relocating 56 hippos from Mukindu dam in Nyandarua to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Regional Trade: EAC urges removal of border bottlenecks to boost intra-EAC trade. Big Investment: Aliko Dangote confirms Lamu will host a $17–$20bn, 700,000 bpd refinery, positioning Kenya as a regional refining hub.

World Bank Update: Kenya’s growth forecast has been cut to 4.3% for 2026, warning that higher energy costs and shipping disruption from the US-Iran conflict could push more Kenyans into poverty. Farm Diversification: Treasury urges farmers to move beyond maize into higher-value crops like avocados and macadamia, alongside dam rehabilitation and cleaner energy support. Housing & Lifestyle: Homebuyers are increasingly trading pure square footage for greener, amenity-rich neighbourhoods as developers compete on parks, walkways and community spaces. Politics & Elections: IEBC is considering easier ways for aspirants to pay nomination fees via Paybill, while Mudavadi insists Ruto’s re-election is secure. Public Service Reform: Geoffrey Ruku says weekly citizen forums will shape a more responsive, citizen-centred public service. Courts & Accountability: High Court orders government disclosure on duty-free rice imports after farmers protested. Health Security: US backs Kenya’s Ebola fight with Sh1.9bn targeting 22 high-risk counties. Economy & Infrastructure: Treasury scraps a Ksh23bn annual highway payment plan in a new toll-based model, and KPA says the Mombasa road project is 49.3% complete. Crime & Justice: DCI arrests suspects behind a fake NIS recruitment scam that cost a victim Sh600,000.